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歐洲風能太陽能生產創紀錄,但對解決能源危機仍是杯水車薪

歐洲風能太陽能生產創紀錄,但對解決能源危機仍是杯水車薪

TRISTAN BOVE 2022-10-24
俄烏戰爭加速歐洲能源轉型,但仍不足以化解能源危機。

雖然一段時間以來,歐洲加大了太陽能和風能的產量,從而一定程度上緩解了天然氣供給短缺和能源價格暴漲帶來的影響,但是這些可再生能源還遠遠不足以彌補歐洲對化石能源的需求。

能源價格是導致今年歐洲通脹水平上漲的一個重要因素。本周歐元區的年通脹率達到了9.9%,而能源價格對通脹的貢獻率最大,達到42%。俄烏戰爭和俄羅斯限制對歐天然氣出口則導致了歐洲能源危機的持續惡化。

不過考慮到今年歐洲的風能和太陽能等可再生能源產量再創新高,這也在一定程度上抑制了能源價格的進一步暴漲。

日前,兩家能源與氣候政策智庫Ember和E3G發布了一份研究報告。該報告顯示,今年3月至9月,歐盟的電力供應有24%來自風能和太陽能,高于去年同期的21%。

報告指出,與去年同期相比,歐洲增產部分的可再生能源相當于為歐盟節省了80億立方米的天然氣進口,折價約合110億歐元(108億美元)。在此期間,歐洲的可再生能源總產量大致相當于價值990億歐元的天然氣進口。

該研究根據荷蘭TTF(歐盟基準天然氣指數)的平均價格計算出了天然氣的等價成本。今年夏天,俄羅斯能源公司減少對歐天然氣輸送時,荷蘭TTF指數一度創下歷史紀錄,雖然此后天然氣價格有所回落,但當前時期的價格同比仍然處于歷史最高。

與去年相比,波蘭的太陽能和風能發電量增幅最高,達到48%。西班牙太陽能和風能發電量的絕對增幅最大。如果今年3月份以來,西班牙的可再生能源沒有增產,那么這部分發電量只能繼續用天然氣彌補,其進口成本將達到17億歐元。

在歐盟27國中,有19個國家今年的太陽能和風能發電量都創下歷史新高,包括法國、意大利和西班牙。

根據智庫公司Ember今年9月份的一份報告,去年夏天,歐洲的太陽能產量很高,從去年5月到8月,太陽能占歐盟總發電量的比重達到創紀錄的12%。在這3個月里,僅太陽能一項,就讓歐盟國家省去了290億歐元的天然氣進口支出。

風能和太陽能一直是歐盟旗艦項目“REPowerEU”計劃的基石。該計劃旨在減少對俄羅斯化石能源的依賴,加大對清潔能源的投入以應對氣候變化。隨著俄烏沖突的爆發和天然氣供應的收緊,歐洲對可再生能源的投資項目大幅加快,但行業的增長速度和規模仍不足以化解歐洲日益惡化的能源危機。

能源危機仍在發酵

在俄烏戰爭爆發時,歐洲有40%的天然氣和27%的石油進口依賴于俄羅斯。歐洲長期以來一直以天然氣作為能源轉型的重要助力,尤其是高度依賴俄羅斯的天然氣。今年年初,歐盟曾給一些天然氣項目打上“綠色”的標簽。

但歐洲的可再生能源計劃也有其局限性。首先是它對清潔能源技術的需求程度超過了稀土等關鍵元素的供給速度,比如用于制造太陽能發電板和電池的鋰、鈷等稀有金屬。

其次,歐洲的可再生能源產量也受到了今年惡劣天氣的影響。今年夏天,歐洲遭遇了高溫和嚴重干旱,多地出現水位下降,導致水力發電不盡如人意。而水力發電是歐洲僅次于風能的第二大可再生能源。

歐洲可再生能源的韌性和發展勢頭,一定程度上會影響能源危機是否將延續到明年,因為屆時天然氣供應將更加有限,同時歐盟對俄羅斯石油的部分禁令也將開始生效。

Ember/E3G的研究報告指出,盡管歐洲可再生能源行業仍然面臨不少挑戰,但天然氣價格特別是液化天然氣價格的持續高企,意味著未來幾年內,綠色能源仍將是歐洲各國政府最容易接受的選擇。

E3G能源系統轉型高級助理阿圖爾·帕圖雷亞在一份聲明中表示:“未來幾年,液化天然氣市場的緊張將繼續推高天然氣成本,因此各國政府應支持‘RePowerEU’計劃的清潔能源目標,將其作為應對能源價格危機的核心要素?!?/p>

根據國際能源署近期的分析,隨著俄羅斯的進一步限制天然氣出口以及全球爭購的加劇,天然氣的供應量至少到明年都將十分有限。

Ember的高級分析師克里斯?羅斯洛維也表示:“風能和太陽能已經對歐洲人產生了幫助。但未來它們的潛力更大?!保ㄘ敻恢形木W)

譯者:樸成奎

雖然一段時間以來,歐洲加大了太陽能和風能的產量,從而一定程度上緩解了天然氣供給短缺和能源價格暴漲帶來的影響,但是這些可再生能源還遠遠不足以彌補歐洲對化石能源的需求。

能源價格是導致今年歐洲通脹水平上漲的一個重要因素。本周歐元區的年通脹率達到了9.9%,而能源價格對通脹的貢獻率最大,達到42%。俄烏戰爭和俄羅斯限制對歐天然氣出口則導致了歐洲能源危機的持續惡化。

不過考慮到今年歐洲的風能和太陽能等可再生能源產量再創新高,這也在一定程度上抑制了能源價格的進一步暴漲。

日前,兩家能源與氣候政策智庫Ember和E3G發布了一份研究報告。該報告顯示,今年3月至9月,歐盟的電力供應有24%來自風能和太陽能,高于去年同期的21%。

報告指出,與去年同期相比,歐洲增產部分的可再生能源相當于為歐盟節省了80億立方米的天然氣進口,折價約合110億歐元(108億美元)。在此期間,歐洲的可再生能源總產量大致相當于價值990億歐元的天然氣進口。

該研究根據荷蘭TTF(歐盟基準天然氣指數)的平均價格計算出了天然氣的等價成本。今年夏天,俄羅斯能源公司減少對歐天然氣輸送時,荷蘭TTF指數一度創下歷史紀錄,雖然此后天然氣價格有所回落,但當前時期的價格同比仍然處于歷史最高。

與去年相比,波蘭的太陽能和風能發電量增幅最高,達到48%。西班牙太陽能和風能發電量的絕對增幅最大。如果今年3月份以來,西班牙的可再生能源沒有增產,那么這部分發電量只能繼續用天然氣彌補,其進口成本將達到17億歐元。

在歐盟27國中,有19個國家今年的太陽能和風能發電量都創下歷史新高,包括法國、意大利和西班牙。

根據智庫公司Ember今年9月份的一份報告,去年夏天,歐洲的太陽能產量很高,從去年5月到8月,太陽能占歐盟總發電量的比重達到創紀錄的12%。在這3個月里,僅太陽能一項,就讓歐盟國家省去了290億歐元的天然氣進口支出。

風能和太陽能一直是歐盟旗艦項目“REPowerEU”計劃的基石。該計劃旨在減少對俄羅斯化石能源的依賴,加大對清潔能源的投入以應對氣候變化。隨著俄烏沖突的爆發和天然氣供應的收緊,歐洲對可再生能源的投資項目大幅加快,但行業的增長速度和規模仍不足以化解歐洲日益惡化的能源危機。

能源危機仍在發酵

在俄烏戰爭爆發時,歐洲有40%的天然氣和27%的石油進口依賴于俄羅斯。歐洲長期以來一直以天然氣作為能源轉型的重要助力,尤其是高度依賴俄羅斯的天然氣。今年年初,歐盟曾給一些天然氣項目打上“綠色”的標簽。

但歐洲的可再生能源計劃也有其局限性。首先是它對清潔能源技術的需求程度超過了稀土等關鍵元素的供給速度,比如用于制造太陽能發電板和電池的鋰、鈷等稀有金屬。

其次,歐洲的可再生能源產量也受到了今年惡劣天氣的影響。今年夏天,歐洲遭遇了高溫和嚴重干旱,多地出現水位下降,導致水力發電不盡如人意。而水力發電是歐洲僅次于風能的第二大可再生能源。

歐洲可再生能源的韌性和發展勢頭,一定程度上會影響能源危機是否將延續到明年,因為屆時天然氣供應將更加有限,同時歐盟對俄羅斯石油的部分禁令也將開始生效。

Ember/E3G的研究報告指出,盡管歐洲可再生能源行業仍然面臨不少挑戰,但天然氣價格特別是液化天然氣價格的持續高企,意味著未來幾年內,綠色能源仍將是歐洲各國政府最容易接受的選擇。

E3G能源系統轉型高級助理阿圖爾·帕圖雷亞在一份聲明中表示:“未來幾年,液化天然氣市場的緊張將繼續推高天然氣成本,因此各國政府應支持‘RePowerEU’計劃的清潔能源目標,將其作為應對能源價格危機的核心要素?!?/p>

根據國際能源署近期的分析,隨著俄羅斯的進一步限制天然氣出口以及全球爭購的加劇,天然氣的供應量至少到明年都將十分有限。

Ember的高級分析師克里斯?羅斯洛維也表示:“風能和太陽能已經對歐洲人產生了幫助。但未來它們的潛力更大?!保ㄘ敻恢形木W)

譯者:樸成奎

Increased solar and wind power production has softened the blow of limited natural gas supply and soaring energy prices in Europe, but renewable energy has yet to completely supplant the continent’s appetite for fossil fuels.

Energy prices have been a big factor behind Europe’s rising inflation this year. The euro area’s annual inflation rate hit 9.9% this week, with rising energy prices—exacerbated by the Ukraine War and Russia limiting natural gas flows to Europe—accounting for the largest share of inflation at 42%.

But energy prices may have been tempered somewhat by record renewable energy production this year, mainly wind and solar power.

Between March and September of this year, wind and solar were ramped up to provide 24% of the EU’s electricity, up from 21% over the same period last year, according to a?study released Monday by energy and climate policy think tanks Ember and E3G.

The increased production has saved the bloc the equivalent of 8 billion cubic meters of natural gas imports compared with the same period last year, worth around €11 billion ($10.8 billion), the study found. Total renewable energy production in Europe during this period is worth the equivalent of €99 billion in natural gas imports.

The study’s authors calculated the equivalent cost in natural gas based on the average price of the Dutch TTF, the EU’s benchmark natural gas index. The TTF hit record highs during the summer when Russian energy companies began reducing natural gas flows to Europe, and while prices have fallen since then, they are still at a record high for this time of year.

Poland registered the highest increase in solar and wind generation compared with last year, around 48%, while Spain saw the greatest absolute increase in electricity generated from the two sources. If Spain had used natural gas to generate the electricity solar and wind have produced in the country since March, it would have cost €1.7 billion in imports.

In all, as many as 19 of the 27 EU member states—including France, Italy, and Spain—hit individual records for solar and wind power generation.

Solar energy was especially productive in Europe last summer, when it accounted for a record 12% of EU electricity generation from May to August, according to a September report by Ember. In those three months, solar alone allowed EU nations to avoid spending €29 billion in natural gas imports, according to Ember.

Wind and solar have been the cornerstone of the European Union’s flagship REPowerEU plan to transition from reliance on Russian fossil fuels to a renewed focus on clean energy sources to tackle climate change. But while the Ukraine invasion and constricted natural gas supply helped to boost renewable energy investments and projects, the industry’s surge this year may be insufficiently fast and big enough to fend off a mounting energy crisis in Europe.

The energy crisis is still happening

When war broke out, Europe depended on Russia for 40% of its natural gas and 27% of its imported oil. Europe has long relied on natural gas, and especially Russian gas, as a key enabler of its transition from fossil fuels to renewables, designating some natural gas projects as “green” earlier this year.

But there are limits to Europe’s renewable energy ambitions. Its demand for clean energy technologies is outpacing supplies of crucial rare earth elements, including the lithium and cobalt used to manufacture solar panels and batteries.

Also, Europe’s renewable energy production has been hindered by difficult weather conditions this year. High temperatures and severe droughts led to low river levels and crippled Europe’s hydropower industry this summer, the continent’s second-largest renewable energy source behind wind.

The resilience and continued momentum of Europe’s renewable energy industry will likely influence whether the continent’s energy crisis will spill over into next year, as natural gas flows become even more limited and a partial EU ban on Russian oil kicks in.

But while Europe’s renewable industry faces challenges, persistently high prices for natural gas and its more easily transportable liquefied form, LNG, mean that that greener energy may prove to be the easiest option for governments over the next few years, the authors of the Ember/E3G study wrote.

“With tight LNG markets sustaining high gas costs for the next years, governments need to support the clean energy ambition of RePowerEU, making it a core element of the energy price crisis response,” Artur Patuleia, senior associate of energy system transitions at E3G, said in a statement.

Natural gas supplies are expected to remain limited for the next year at least, according to recent analysis from the watchdog International Energy Agency, owing to further constraints from Russia and rising global competition for supplies.

“Wind and solar are already helping European citizens,” Chris Rosslowe, senior analyst at Ember, also said. “But the future potential is even greater.”

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