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多數基金經理認為通脹已達峰值,之后將下降

多數基金經理認為通脹已達峰值,之后將下降

WILL DANIEL 2022-10-24
87%的基金經理認為通脹已觸頂,79%的人認為未來12個月內通脹會下降,可能為美聯儲政策轉向鋪平道路。

圖片來源:MICHAEL M. SANTIAGO—GETTY IMAGES

整個2022年,華爾街巨頭和頂級經濟學家都在冷酷地警告美國人,衰退即將到來。

他們擔心美國經濟和股市前景黯淡,除非通脹走低,給美聯儲(Federal Reserve)暫停加息甚至轉而降息的空間。

今年到目前為止,標普500指數(S&P 500)已下跌22%以上,哪怕股市稍有反彈,投資銀行也會迅速稱之為短期熊市陷阱。

但現在,美國銀行(Bank of America)一項新調查顯示,87%的基金經理認為通脹已觸頂,79%的人認為未來12個月內通脹會下降,可能為美聯儲政策轉向鋪平道路。

美國銀行研究人員表示,最近對326名基金經理(管理資產規模達9710億美元)的調查顯示,很多人已“大喊投降”。

投降是指股價長期下跌,多數投資者紛紛恐慌,“割肉”或出售持有的股票。這基本上是底部信號,之后拋售壓力結束,市場隨之反彈。

盡管聽起來可能有違常理,但今年美國銀行一直在市場上尋找投降跡象。

美國銀行認為,投資者投降將導致股市出現“超低點”,美聯儲會擔心給經濟和市場造成痛苦,幾乎能意味著加息和股市反彈結束。他們認為明年上半年將發生。

“美聯儲降息成為共識時,會出現大幅下跌,然后大幅反彈,”他們寫道。

“割肉”之后有反彈

等等,“割肉”是好事嗎?

沒錯,在股票市場上,投降或是大批投資者對拋售壓力屈服時,可能是反彈即將到來的信號。

聽起來可能很奇怪,但大規模拋售可以將缺乏信心,容易恐慌性拋售的投資者手中股份轉移給更能承受風險,愿意熬過經濟低迷期的投資者。這有助于穩定市場,形成價格底部,或者美國銀行所謂的“大底”,從而引發新反彈。

由于明年“大底”很可能引發美聯儲轉向,美國銀行認為股市有望走高。

投降并不能保證明年股市走牛,但美國銀行還是認為基金經理的投降或悲觀情緒正說明“新一輪熊市反彈”正在醞釀之中。

至于投資者投降的證據方面,美國銀行研究人員指出,74%的基金經理認為未來12個月全球經濟將出現衰退,全球增長預期接近歷史低點。

他們還指出,基金經理投資組合中的現金水平處于2001年以來最高(6.3%),49%的基金經理減持股票,說明很多基金經理正采取低風險策略。

美國銀行團隊認為,調查結果顯示,投資者當前處境“不會更糟”,意味著美聯儲可能轉向,但可能要等到明年。

原因在于,盡管預測未來12個月短期利率將下降的基金經理比例(也就是預計美聯儲將轉向的基金經理)10月翻了一番,達到28%,但仍遠低于歷史上“大底”出現時如此預期基金經理占比,之前為65%。

美國銀行表示,這意味著基金經理對美聯儲轉向尚未達成共識。一旦出現,股市必會反彈。(財富中文網)

譯者:梁宇

審校:夏林

整個2022年,華爾街巨頭和頂級經濟學家都在冷酷地警告美國人,衰退即將到來。

他們擔心美國經濟和股市前景黯淡,除非通脹走低,給美聯儲(Federal Reserve)暫停加息甚至轉而降息的空間。

今年到目前為止,標普500指數(S&P 500)已下跌22%以上,哪怕股市稍有反彈,投資銀行也會迅速稱之為短期熊市陷阱。

但現在,美國銀行(Bank of America)一項新調查顯示,87%的基金經理認為通脹已觸頂,79%的人認為未來12個月內通脹會下降,可能為美聯儲政策轉向鋪平道路。

美國銀行研究人員表示,最近對326名基金經理(管理資產規模達9710億美元)的調查顯示,很多人已“大喊投降”。

投降是指股價長期下跌,多數投資者紛紛恐慌,“割肉”或出售持有的股票。這基本上是底部信號,之后拋售壓力結束,市場隨之反彈。

盡管聽起來可能有違常理,但今年美國銀行一直在市場上尋找投降跡象。

美國銀行認為,投資者投降將導致股市出現“超低點”,美聯儲會擔心給經濟和市場造成痛苦,幾乎能意味著加息和股市反彈結束。他們認為明年上半年將發生。

“美聯儲降息成為共識時,會出現大幅下跌,然后大幅反彈,”他們寫道。

“割肉”之后有反彈

等等,“割肉”是好事嗎?

沒錯,在股票市場上,投降或是大批投資者對拋售壓力屈服時,可能是反彈即將到來的信號。

聽起來可能很奇怪,但大規模拋售可以將缺乏信心,容易恐慌性拋售的投資者手中股份轉移給更能承受風險,愿意熬過經濟低迷期的投資者。這有助于穩定市場,形成價格底部,或者美國銀行所謂的“大底”,從而引發新反彈。

由于明年“大底”很可能引發美聯儲轉向,美國銀行認為股市有望走高。

投降并不能保證明年股市走牛,但美國銀行還是認為基金經理的投降或悲觀情緒正說明“新一輪熊市反彈”正在醞釀之中。

至于投資者投降的證據方面,美國銀行研究人員指出,74%的基金經理認為未來12個月全球經濟將出現衰退,全球增長預期接近歷史低點。

他們還指出,基金經理投資組合中的現金水平處于2001年以來最高(6.3%),49%的基金經理減持股票,說明很多基金經理正采取低風險策略。

美國銀行團隊認為,調查結果顯示,投資者當前處境“不會更糟”,意味著美聯儲可能轉向,但可能要等到明年。

原因在于,盡管預測未來12個月短期利率將下降的基金經理比例(也就是預計美聯儲將轉向的基金經理)10月翻了一番,達到28%,但仍遠低于歷史上“大底”出現時如此預期基金經理占比,之前為65%。

美國銀行表示,這意味著基金經理對美聯儲轉向尚未達成共識。一旦出現,股市必會反彈。(財富中文網)

譯者:梁宇

審校:夏林

Throughout 2022, Wall Street titans and top economists have relentlessly warned Americans that a recession is on the way.

They fear that unless inflation goes down, allowing the Federal Reserve to pause its interest rate hikes or even pivot to rate cuts, the outlook for the U.S. economy and the stock market is bleak.

The S&P 500 has already cratered more than 22% year to date, and any stock market rallies have quickly been labeled short-lived bear market traps by investment banks.

But now, a new Bank of America survey shows that 87% of fund managers believe inflation has peaked, and 79% believe it will fall over the next 12 months, which could lead the way for a Fed pivot.

Bank of America researchers said that their latest fund manager survey, which includes responses from 326 fund managers with $971 billion in assets under management, also “screams capitulation.”

Capitulation is the idea that if prices fall for an extended period of time, a majority of investors panic and “capitulate” or sell their holdings. This is essentially rock bottom, after which selling pressure comes to an end, and a market rally follows.

Although it may sound counterintuitive, Bank of America has been looking for capitulation in markets this year.

The investment bank believes investor capitulation will lead to a “big low” in the stock market, which will then cause the Fed to panic about the pain it’s causing in the economy and markets, all but ensuring the end of rate hikes and a rally in stocks. And they think it’s going to happen in the first half of next year.

“We say big low, big rally…when Fed cuts are consensus,” they wrote.

The ‘capitulation’ rally

Wait, “capitulation” is a good thing?

That’s right, in the stock market, capitulation, or a mass surrender to selling pressure by investors, can sometimes be a sign that a rally is on the way.

It may sound odd, but mass selling can transfer holdings from investors who lack conviction and are prone to panic selling to those who are more risk tolerant and willing to ride out a downturn. This can help stabilize markets and form a price bottom, or what Bank of America calls a “big low,” setting up a new rally.

Because of the pressure that a “big low” has to spark a Fed pivot next year, BofA is seeing green for the stock market.

While capitulation can’t guarantee stocks will enter a new bull market next year, Bank of America still believes that fund managers’ capitulation, or pessimism, is evidence that there are “tasty morsels for another bear rally” afoot.

As evidence of capitulation among investors, Bank of America’s researchers pointed to the fact that 74% of fund managers believe a global recession will hit over the next 12 months, and global growth expectations are near record lows.

They also noted that cash levels in fund managers’ portfolios are at highs not seen since 2001 (6.3%), and 49% of managers are underweight equities, a sign that many are taking a low-risk approach.

The BofA team argued the survey results show investors are in “doesn’t get much worse” territory, which means a Fed pivot is likely on the way, but it probably won’t come until next year.

That’s because although the share of fund managers forecasting lower short-term interest rates in the next 12 months (a.k.a. those expecting a Fed pivot) doubled in October to 28%, that’s still far below the 65% that have expected lower rates at prior “big lows” throughout history.

BofA said this means that a Fed pivot has yet to become the consensus outlook among fund managers. But when it does, the stock market is bound to rally.

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